Jaxson Dart’s Rookie Season: A Cause for Optimism

In the past two seasons the longest tenured starting quarterback to be replaced was Daniel Jones. Jones was the starter for six seasons on the Giants and was replaced in 2025 by rookie Jaxson Dart. Today I look at Dart’s rookie statistical ranking among rookie quarterbacks for all time that started at least 8 games in their rookie season. Here is a table of the stats that were at the either good or bad extremes for Jaxon Dart. It shows the top rookie quarterback in that stat and Dart’s rank among the rookies all time. Also shown is the percentage that rank put him at. That is important to note as though most stats had 115 starting rookies that qualified, some of the newer statistics only had 23 or 27 qualifying rookies with data. (If you open the graphic in another tab it will be larger to view.)

The positive percents are color coded in yellow to the left and the negative in red and to the right. The full data statistics are available to download at Dart Rookie

Based on the rookie ranking data, here is an analysis of what these metrics tell us about Jaxson Dart. Jaxson Dart as a passer excelled in that which he excelled in college. His first year in the NFL was a symmetric transition from what he did in his senior year of college. Just not as pronounced given the increase in the level of defense. The following query from Pro Football Reference highlights his areas of top achievement in the passing game.

For single seasons, in 2025, played QB, in the regular season, requiring Games Started >= 8 and Passing TD % >= 4 and Pass Intercept. % <= 1.99 and and Passer Rating >= 90 and Pass Completion % >= 63 and Poor Throw % <= 16 and Adj Net Yds/Pass Att >= 5.9, sorted by ascending Age.

The blue coded statistics indicate that it was above the league average. The difference in this table and the prior is that this is against all NFL starting quarterbacks in 2025. The first table was Dart against all rookie quarterbacks all time. So while he excelled in ANY/A, Cmp % and TD% for a rookie, he did not as a standard starting quarterback.

Here is a similar query of college in 2024 but with higher thresholds.

For single seasons, in 2024, requiring Pass Attempts >= 15 and Passing TD % >= 7 and Pass Intercept. % <= 1.5 and Passing Efficiency Rating >= 90 and Pass Completion % >= 67 and Adj Yds/Pass Att >= 11, sorted by descending Rushing TD.

In college Dart was the only player in 2024 to achieve the statistics listed. Those same statistics in the NFL placed Dart in 2025 among a class of just five other quarterbacks. The NFL Poor Throw % reduced the selected NFL quarterbacks from 11 to 6. The college data did not have a similar data point. However PFF collects data on turnover worthy plays and had Dart in 2024 ranked 16th out of 56 draft eligible quarterbacks for a top 29 percentile. In the college table the bolded blue statistics indicate that Dart led the league.

As a passer we see someone who protects the ball with a extremely low interception percent and a low bad throw %. He was effcient as a passer with a rookie rank of 13th in Passer Rating (top 11%) and top 20% in AY/A and ANY/A. These were aided by a high TD%, low Int% and though sacked often (top 1/3rd) he was bottom 1/4 with low sack yards. Many of those sacks may have been scrambles that were minimal losses.

He was not as successful as in college with the deep ball. This may have been due to the receiving corps and the return of Malik Nabers will help provide more insight into this. In college his Y/A and Y/C led the league. The 2025 rookie data shows a low roughly 80 percentile on Complete Air Yards/Completion , Completed Air Yards/Attempt and Yards/Completion. Dart had 22 completed deep (15+ air) passes. That amounted to a deep pass per every 15 attempts. That was roughly average in the league. Among all-time rookies his Intended Air Yards/Attempt was at the 40 percentile or slightly above average.  Among starting 2025 quarterbacks it was 11th in the league. So he was pushing downfield but not connecting. Dart maintained he college tendency of big plays on 1st and 2nd down that he was recognized for as tops by PFF. In his rookie NFL year, 18 of his 22 deep passes were on 1st or 2nd down. However his high college grade in play action did not translate to the NFL, where he was 25th out of 39 quarterbacks in 2025 in play action passing yards per attempt. The Giants did not ask much of Dart in the passing game. They were 21st in passing yards and 5th in rushing yards. Dart’s passing yards per game of 162 was roughly in the 70th percentile among all rookie quarterbacks that started 8 games. Another bright spot in Dart’s passing game was that among the rookies he was in the top third in Yards after the Catch per completion. This despite not having a receiver with more than 10 receptions in the top 100 in career YAC/R.

Where Dart’s game really took off in the NFL was in the run game. As a rookie among all-time rookies, who started 8 games, he was in the top ten in just about every rushing category. His rushing touchdowns of 9  was second only to Cam Newton. Dart’s rushing success % ranked third among rookies. The game plan worked in designed runs for Dart. He ranked fourth among all 2025 quarterbacks in  the number of run-pass option (RPO) plays and was third among all-time rookies. In addition he was in the top third among all rookies in number of scrambles. Though he was tenth among 2025 quarterbacks in number of scrambles, he was only 24th in yards/scramble.

With regard to late game heroics, Jaxson Dart did not participate. He had zero games of 4th quarter comebacks or game winning drives. That made him one of the 31 rookie quarterbacks that started 8 games out of 115 that had zero. That was the low 27 percentile. Dart’s win % of 0.333 was 65th among the 115 rookies for a 57 percentile.

Plugging the above data into google AI it came back with the following summary of Jaxson Dart. It appears to be fairly accurate.

The data paints Jaxson Dart as a highly productive dual-threat rookie quarterback who excels at taking care of the football (low INTs) and utilizing his legs (9 TDs, high rushing attempts/scrambles). He is a competent passer who ranks in the top half of rookies in accuracy and intermediate passing metrics, though not at the elite top-5 level in total passing yardage or yards per attempt. He fits well into offense schemes that emphasize RPOs and quick decisions under pressure. He doesn’t beat himself with turnovers and is a lethal red-zone threat with his legs.

Prior to the 2025 NFL draft PFF published an article on Highest-graded quarterback in every category. Dart was listed as tops in the most categories. For the most part those categories have translated into the NFL. Here are the categories with PFF writeup and the NFL rookie translation.

Against the Blitz Grade
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: 93.0

Although the Ole Miss signal caller carries some concern in his pressure to sack rate (18.6%), his ability to produce when faced with the blitz is unmatched in this year’s class. Dart ranked in the top three among Power Four quarterbacks in pass yards per attempt (12.0) and big time throws (13), the former charted more than a full yard above the next highest passer. – PFF

In a game against the Broncos, the 3rd rated defense, Dart was blitzed the second most among Dart games in the season and for Denver with 12 blitzes, it was their seventh highest blitz game of the year. The Giants, led by Dart, had among Denver games the fourth most passing yards, tie for most passing touchdowns, second and third in passing Y/A and AY/A, and fifth in passer rating.more tha any other game

In the Saints game the Saints blitzed more than any other Saints game that year with 14. The Giants, led by Dart, had the following rank among Saints games: 9th Cmp%, 6th passinmg yards, 4th touchdowns (tie), 12th Y/A, 14th AY/A, 11th Rating, and 4th (lowest) in sack yards.

In general those are not bad numbers and believe it shows that Dart’s skill against the blitz translated.

Play-Action Grade
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: 93.1
Lane Kiffin’s scheme at Ole Miss heavily incorporates play-action, evidenced by Dart leading the nation in those dropbacks (252) in 2024. On looks that featured run-action, the Ole Miss product racked up over 2,600 yards – the only quarterback to surpass the 2,000-yard mark – while amassing the most big time throws (23) in the Power Four, posting a rate of over 10.5%. – PFF

In 2025 among quarterbacks that played in 8 or more games, Dart was 27th of 37 QBs in number of play action plays with 46. He was 30th in passing yards on play action with 328 yards. That worked out to 7.13 yards/Att which was 25th of 37. It seemed kind of odd that Dart was not utilized more on play action. But over the last five seasons the Giants with coach Daboll and quarterback Jones were tie for the tenth most play action plays in a season with 2022 having 170 plays. They were the fourth most in 2022. But in yards per play action attempt they were dead last in the league. Could be a case of eithe rnot good at coaching that or once burnt stay away. That may change as the Ravens were the second most efficient team in 2025 in yards per attempt on play action.

Intermediate Passing Grade
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: 94.4
Quality ball placement is one of Dart’s enigmatic traits, however, he showcased it frequently when attacking the intermediate part of the field. On passes targeted between 10 and 19 yards, Dart charted a 23.5% accuracy-plus rate and generated 14.8 yards per attempt, the most by any passer in the Power Four. – PFF

I got nothing on this. 🙁

First -and Second-Down Grade
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: 91.9
While staying on schedule on early downs is paramount for an offense’s success, pushing the limits with chunk yardage can set the unit apart. Big plays on early downs were a calling card for Dart, as his 3,581 passing yards and 26 big-time throws led all passers in the Power Four. His 8.1% big-time throw rate on first and second downs not only ranks first in this year’s class but also the highest by any Power Four quarterback with at least 150 early down attempts. – PFF

This did transition. See statistics analyzed above.

Throws Outside the Numbers Grade
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: 91.6
Although the Ole Miss offense didn’t incorporate many full-field reads, Dart was no stranger to pressing the ball to the boundary. The senior finished as the only passer in the Power Four to rack up over 10.0 yards per attempt with at least 55 throws outside the numbers. – PFF

Dart appears to have carried this ability into the NFL. His reported accuracy on throws outside-the-numbers on the right side of the field were exceptional reporting at a completion of 73%. To the left side was lower (∼ 65%) but still above the average rookie. This data is the best I could obtain but could use verification.

Jaxson Dart’s rookie season was a polarizing one. He was selected by Dane Brugler for the Athletic’s All Rookie Team. He also made Sports Info Solutions All Rookie Team. However he was conspiculously absent from most others. I feel there is a lot to be optimistic about. He has an impressive college pedigree, great intangibles, dual threat capability, arm strength, great ball security, demonstrated accuracy for short to intermediate throws, a good yards after the catch number and can handle pressure. I appreciate Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) metric to evaluate and compare players. They have Jaxson Dart with the highest rookie AV for all Giants quarterbacks with an 11. I feel that most Giant fans are looking forward to see how Jaxson Dart does in 2026.

Feature image: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons