From Seventh Round to Seventh Heaven

At the ninth week of the season there are a total of twelve quarterbacks that have had at least 50 pass attempts and have earned an overall Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A) and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) of 7+ yards. That is a large number and will probably decrease as the season winds down. One quarterback in particular is working towards an elite achievement in this regard. Brock Purdy of the 49ers is in his fifth year. He has achieved this metric in each of his years and is on track to do so in this his fifth year. Other quarterbacks have earned this in 5 or more seasons. However only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have done so in five and six consecutive seasons respectively. Drew Brees holds the record for making it in six consecutive seasons and they were his last six seasons (2015-2020) and made the Conference Championship one of those years. Peyton Manning made five consecutive seaons in 2003-2007 and won the Super Bowl one year.

Brock Purdy was chosen as the last player in seventh round of the draft. He is the sole quarterback to achieve a 7+ in both ANY/A and NY/A in each of his first three years. Purdey is the career leader in both ANY/A and NY/A. Kurt Warner is the single season leader in NY/A with a 9.03 in 2000 on the Rams. Peyton Manning is the single season leader in ANY/A with a 9.78 in 2004 on the Colts.

Jordan Love is working to achieve his third consecutive season in this double metric and Drake Maye his second. The Giants have a quarterback in the last two seasons that achieved this double metric. Currently JJ McCarthy in only four games is achieving it. Last year Jameis Winston achieved it in only three games. The Seahawks have done it these last two years so far. Last year Sam Darnold achieved it playing a full 17 games. This year has achieved it in three games.

The other players working on it this season is a list of some of the top quarterbacks. They are Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins.

Given the changes in NFL rules it is easier in the modern era to get a higher NY/A and especially a higher ANY/A. Two changes that contributed to this happening were

  1. 1978 (The Mel Blount Rule). The NFL prohibited defenders from making contact with receivers more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. This ended the “dead-ball” era of the 1970s and laid the foundation for vertical passing.
  2. 2004 (Illegal Contact Emphasis). Following the physical 2003 AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Colts, the league instructed officials to strictly enforce the 5-yard chuck rule and defensive holding. Passing efficiency jumped immediately, pushing league-average NY/A past 6.0 and ANY/A into the high 5s over the next several years.

Looking at players that achieved this double metric with 7+ yards before these changes highlights some of the best passers in past NFL.

Prior to 1978 here were the quarterbacks that hit this double metric multiple times

Otto Graham (CLE, 1947, 1949)
Y. A. Tittle (NYG, 1962, 1963)
Jacky Lee (HOU 1961, DEN 1965)
Johnny Unitas (BAL, 1964, 1965)
Bill Nelsen (PIT 1966, CLE 1968)
Len Dawson (KAN 1966, 1968)
John Brodie (SFO, 1961, 1965, 1970)
Earl Morrall (BAL 1968, MIA 1972)
Ken Stabler (OAK 1974, 1976)

Here are quarterbacks that hit it multiple times between 1978 and 2003

Dan Fouts SDG 1981, 1982, 1983, 1985
Dan Marino MIA 1983, 1984, 1986, 1993
Joe Montana SFO 1984, 1989
Boomer Esiason CIN 1986, 1988, 1997
Steve Young SFO 1987, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 1998
Warren Moon HOU 1988, 1990
Mark Rypien WAS 1989, 1991
Jim Kelly BUF 1990, 1991
Troy Aikman DAL 1993, 1995, 1998
Chris Chandler RAM 1994, ATL 1998
Brett Favre GNB 1995, 2001
Steve McNair HOU 1996, TEN 2003
Kurt Warner STL 1999, 2000, 2001
Peyton Manning IND 1999, 2000, 2003
Trent Green STL 2000, KAN 2002, 2003

Here is a chart of these metrics in the NFL Passing League Average over seasons

 

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