Beyond the Ring: The NFC West Path to a Dynasty (Part 2)

Last updated on January 4th, 2026 at 04:17 am

Following my Part 1 post of Beyond the Ring: Quarterbacks on the NFL Dynasty Path (Part 1) today I take a look at the other pieces in the elusive dream of building an NFL dynasty. To look at the other players on the teams was too much for one post. So I will look at them by divisions. We begin with the NFC West. This has become a powerful division with strong teams in the 2025 Super Bowl hunt, I begin at the bottom of the standings and work up.

Arizona Cardinals

Here is a list of the Cardinal players that had an AV of 8 or better in the previous five seasons. Here is what the color coding means

8.0 <= AV < 10  No color
10 <= AV < 15 Light Green
15 <= AV < 20 Dark Green
AV earned on a different team Grey Text.

2024 Budda Baker Calais Campbell Evan Brown Hjalte Froholdt James Conner Josh Sweat Kyler Murray Marvin Harrison Jr. Trey McBride
2023   Calais Campbell   Hjalte Froholdt James Conner   Kyler Murray Paris Johnson Trey McBride
2022   Josh Sweat Kyler Murray Zay Jones
2021 Budda Baker   Kyler Murray
2020 Budda Baker Calais Campbell         Kyler Murray

From this data and other sources I arrived at a core team for 2026 based on the current roster of players that are good to elite. The list is

Position Offense   Defense Position
QB Kyler Murray Calais Campbell DL
TE Trey McBride Josh Sweat ED
RB James Conner Budda Baker S
OC Hjalte Froholdt Walter Nolen DL
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
OT Paris Johnson

I did not add in Evan Brown as he only had one year of good AV and it was at the low good end.

I did add in Paris Johnson because due to inconsistencies noted in the AV calculation. Paris Johnson actually had a better year in 2024 in which he got an AV of 7 than he did in 2023 when he got an AV of 8. I checked the AV just for his position and also the team offense for those years and did not see anything denoting a lower AV. So I still value AV as a great way to analyze large groups of players over various seasons. However it needs to be used with other sources for individual player evaluation. I believe the site Pro Football Reference does agree with that as they do say ““AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric.”

Since AV is not calculated during a season, I looked at the rookies and felt that their first round pick of Walter Nolen had an impressive showing in the limited time he did play. So I added Nolen to the list.

ESPN had done an analysis on how many good to elite players a team needs to be a Super Bowl contender. They came up with that 40 percent of the team should be good to elite. The team number is determined by playrs that had 250 plus snaps in the recent year. This would work out to 40 percent of 36 players for the Cardinals or 15 players. This puts them at 5 players short.

Washington vs Arizona Cardinals, September 20, 2020 – All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

In the first post of this series, Beyond the Ring: Quarterbacks on the NFL Dynasty Path (Part 1) Kyler Murray was not included in the list of dynasty path favorites. He has done well as far as AV is concerned. A stat that I find indicative of great quarterback play is the combination of Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt (ANY/A) and Net Yards/Attempt (NY/A). To have both at 7.0 yards or above is very good for a game. Murray has a career 28% of his games with both. That is just about average for active quarterbacks with over ten starts. His career TD% of 4.1 is below the league average for that timeframe which is 4.5. His career pass success rate of 47.3% is 18th out of 64 active quarterbacks that started 10 or more games in that timeframe. He has an above average QBR for five of his seven seasons. The other two seasons he suffered from serious injuries. Kyler Murray fits the bill of an above average quarterback that is not top ten. You can have a dynaty with such a quarterback. Some examples would be Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Jim Plunkett. Murray is an avid chess player and believes it helps his football play in things like anticipating or thinking ahead and being aggressive.

The third leg of establishing a dynasty is the coach. The Cardinal’s head caoch is Jonathan Gannon and has been since 2023. His record as Cardinal’s head coach is 15-34. He has not had a winning season in the three years he has been their head coach.  I look at how many close losses a coach has as they could indicate a coaching problem. The thought being the team had enough talent to make a close game but they lost. Over the timespan of Gannon’s coaching, 2023 thru 2025, Gannon’s Cardinals stand alone in first with the most close losses. I define a close loss as within 7 points. He had 18 such losses. His worst year was 2025 with 8 so far, which is tie for the most. Looking at close wins in the 2023-2025 timespan, Gannon come in tie at 31st with 2 other teams for the least amount with 7. In the 2023 – 2025 timespan the Cardinals lead the league in games lost in the 4th quarter. These are games the losing team was up by at least one touchdown going into the 4th quarter. The Cardinals have 4 such games with three of them in the 2025 season. In addition the Cardinals in 2025 were tie for 5th worst in the league with four games of a loss by 17 or more points. For the path to a dynasty a new head coach may be more in line.

Another leg to the dynasty path is the General Manager. The Cardinal’s GM is Monti Ossenfort and has been since January 2023. He has shown good choices in the team’s first round picks for each of his three years. All three are on the core team listed above. Ossenfort has made use of trade downs to get value and build the team. He found a gem in his 2023 sixth round pick of DT Dante Stills. However his picks when compared to draft position and other teams are still in the lower third of the league for value. According to the analysis in the post How are the NFL GMs performing in the draft?, Ossenfort drafts together rank as 26th in the league for that timeframe. The additions of veterans Calais Campbell and Josh Sweat have been good moves. Ossenfort is a piece that is on the cusp of a piece for a dynasty. Other options should be explored but staying with Ossenfort as the final decision is a viable choice.

Los Angeles Rams

Here is a list of the Rams players that had an AV of 8 or better in the previous five seasons.

2024 Davante Adams Jared Verse Kevin Dotson Kobie Turner Kyren Williams Matthew Stafford Poona Ford Puka Nacua
2023 Alaric Jackson Davante Adams       Kyren Williams Matthew Stafford Puka Nacua
2022 Davante Adams   Jimmy Garoppolo           Rob Havenstein
2021 D.J. Humphries Davante Adams David Quessenberry Jimmy Garoppolo     Matthew Stafford Poona Ford   Rob Havenstein
2020 D.J. Humphries Davante Adams         Matthew Stafford

From this data I arrived at a core team for 2026 based on the current roster of players that are good to elite. The list is

Position Offense Defense Position
OL Alaric Jackson Jared Verse ED
OL Kevin Dotson Kobie Turner DL
QB Matthew Stafford Poona Ford DL
RB Kyren Williams
WR Puka Nacua
WR Davante Adams

To this the following players were added as they really stepped up in 2025 and have had a season that outshown prior seasons that many on this list had earned an AV of 7 in those seasons

Position Player Reason for addition
FS Kamren Curl higher productivity on 2025 better than even his rookie year which had AV of 7
ILB Nathan Landman higher productivity on 2025 better than even his 2023 year which had AV of 7
OLB Byron Young higher productivity on 2025 better than even his prior two seasons which had AV of 7
OG Steve Avila higher productivity on 2025 better than even his rookie seasons which had AV of 7
OC Coleman Shelton higher productivity on 2025 better than even his 2023 year which had AV of 7
RT Warren McClendon Jr. Among offensive tackles with at least 200 pass blocking snaps, McClendon has allowed the lowest pressure rate in the NFL at 1.9%, according to Next Gen Stats, and hasn’t given up a sack.
TE Colby Parkinson Breakouts season – 6th in TDs, 3rd in YAC, 10th in passer rating

Based on 40% of the 35 players with 250+ snaps the Rams would need 14 players in the good to elite category to be Super Bowl contenders. They have that number with the 16 players listed above.

The Rams are a favorite to make the Super Bowl and have a strong team. This apparent success outshines some of the inspiring stories of players that have come on strong for this team after what appeared to be lackluster starts to their careers.

Linebacker Nathan Landman was an undrafted free agent when he signed with the Falcons in 2022. After playing three years for the Falcons Nathan signed a one year deal with the Rams for the veteran minimum salary. He was voted a team captain by his Rams teammates before his firsat season even began. Nathan is has four forced fumbles for the year and a total of 10 for the last three seasons. He is known for his “peanut punch” at knocking the ball out. According to PFF Nathan ranks in the 90th percentile in run stop rate. The Rams extended Nathan in November to a 3 year 22.5 million extension.

Outside Linebacker Byron Young was a third round draft pick in 2023 for the Rams. He posted slightly above average PFF grades in his first two seasons and now is having a breakout season in 2025. Byron has 11 sacks so far this season. You have to go back three years since a 3rd round pick or later had 11+ sacks in one of their first three years.

Center Coleman Shelton signed as an undrafted free agent in 2018 by the 49ers and released at the end of training camp. Later that year he signed on the Cardinals practive squad but was cut going into the 2019 season. He signed with the Rams to start 2019. For 2019 and 2020 he played primarily to exclusively on special teams for the Rams. On the 2021 Super Bowl Champion team he played 20% of the offensive snaps for the regular season. He also played in all four of the Rams’ postseason games, including the team’s 23–20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl. In 2022 he became a starting center. As of week ten Coleman was tied for the PFF highest-graded run-blocking center and had only allowed one sack on 290 pass blocking snaps.

Tackle Warren Clarendon Jr. was a fifth round draft pick by the Rams in 2023. He saw limited snaps in 2023. He saw increased playing time in 2024 and had five starts. In 2025 Warren has had a breakout. In his role as the backup tackle Warren started due to a season-ending injury to the veteran starter, Rob Havenstein. As of December 12th, among offensive tackles with at least 200 pass blocking snaps, McClendon has allowed the lowest pressure rate in the NFL at 1.9%, according to Next Gen Stats, and hasn’t given up a sack.

Tight end Colby Parkinson was a fourth round draft pick by the Seahawks in 2020. His progression to good player has increased each season culminating to his career-best season in 2025. This season he has six receiving touchdowns, a 6.6 YAC/Reception and a 66.7 Receiving Success rate. He shares the only 4th round or later tight end with similar stats with only George Kittle.

In researching the Rams I have since updated the first post of this series, Beyond the Ring: Quarterbacks on the NFL Dynasty Path (Part 1) to include Matthew Stafford in the list of dynasty path favorites. He has done well as far as AV is concerned. Looking at the combination of ANY/A and NY/A since his move to the Rams in 2021, Stafford has 51% of his games with both. That is good for ninth place among 54 active quarterbacks with over ten starts. His TD% of 5.5 is well above the league average for that timeframe which is 4.4. His pass success rate of 51.1% is 5th out of 89 active quarterbacks in that timeframe. Of those five seasons on the Rams he has an above avergae QBR for three and a very good QBR for two. HIs 2025 season QBR of 71.9 is his career best. With one Super Bowl championship with the Rams already achieved, Stafford is definitely a quarterback on the path to a dynasty.

Rams joint practice The 621st Contingency Response Wing, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Sean McVay is the head coach of the Rams and has been since 2017. His record is 91-56 or 0.619. In his nine seasons he has six post season trips, two Super Bowl apperances and one Super Bowl championship. As for close losses, over the span of seasons from 2017 to 2025, the Rams and the Dolphins are the only teams that did not have a season with five or more close losses.

The General Manager, Les Snead, has been GM since 2012. After two poorer drafts the first two seasons, the other eleven drafts have from a value point taking into account draft position been five in the top third of the league, five in the middle third and only one in the bottom third. He has drafted caliber players such as Aaron Donald, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Rob Havenstein, Todd Gurley, Jackrabbit Jenkins, Tyler Higbee, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Byron Young, Steve Avila and Jared Verse. He has helped build a Super Bowl contender team. In his total time as GM according to the analysis  in the referenced post, Sneads total drafts ranks as tenth in the league.

San Francisco 49ers

Here is a list of the 49ers players that had an AV of 8 or better in the previous five seasons.

2024 Brock Purdy Fred Warner George Kittle Jauan Jennings Nick Bosa
2023 Brandon Aiyuk Brock Purdy Christian McCaffrey Clelin Ferrell Colton McKivitz Fred Warner George Kittle Jake Brendel Jordan Elliott Nick Bosa Trent Williams
2022 Brandon Aiyuk Christian McCaffrey Fred Warner George Kittle Jake Brendel Mac Jones Nick Bosa Trent Williams Yetur Gross Matos
2021 Fred Warner George Kittle Kendrick Bourne Mac Jones Nick Bosa Trent Williams
2020 Fred Warner Trent Williams

From this data I arrived at the following core team of good to elite players.

Position Offense Defense Position
QB Brock Purdy Fred Warner LB
RB Christian McCaffrey Nick Bosa ED
TE George Kittle
WR Jauan Jennings
LT Trent Williams
OC Jake Brendel
RT Colton McKivitz
WR Brandon Aiyuk

Forty percent of the team 2024 snaps of 250+ would be 40% of 33 or 13 players. This would be the number of good to elite players needed to be a Super Bowl contender according to the ESPN analysis. This puts the team at three players short. The above analysis is assuming that Brandon Aiyuk and the team resolve their problems and he returns. If not that would put the need at four players.

Brock Purdy vs Rams – Bentheeditior, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

In the first post of this series, Beyond the Ring: Quarterbacks on the NFL Dynasty Path (Part 1) Brock Purdy made the list of dynasty path favorites. In looking at number of games with an ANY/A and NY/A of both 7+ since 2022 (Purdy’s start), Purdy comes in at number one in percent of games with 58%.  His career TD% of 6.3 is well above the league average of 4.4. In fact it is second best for that timeframe. His passing success rate of 52.6% is also second. He led the league in QBR for the 2023 season. His QBR of 75.8 this season would be considered elite.

Kyle Shanahan is the head coach of the 49ers and has been since 2017. His coaching record is 81-66 or 0.551. He has had a winning season in five of his nine seasons. If you count up the number of close losses each team had since 2017 with 1st having the least then the 49ers come in at eleventh. Doing the same for blowout losses (17+ points) the 49ers come in seventh with first being the least. He comes in fourth in number of blowout wins. One interesting note is that in his coaching timeframe on the 49ers they have never been down by 7 or more points going into the 4th quarter and came back to win. They are the only team in that timeframe for which that is true.

John Lynch is the General Manager and has been since 2017. Looking at draft picks from a value view with regard to pick position (as posted in How are the NFL GMs performing in the draft?) Lynch had only his first year in 2017 in the bottom third of the league. Since then he has had four drafts in the top third and three in the middle third. His 2024 draft ranked out as second best in this analysis with value picks of Ricky Pearsall, Renardo Green, Dominick Puni, Malik Mustapha and Isaac Guerendo. His next best from a value view was 2020 with picks of Javon Kinlaw, Brandon Aiyuk, Colton McKivitz and seventh rounder Jauan Jennings. According to the analysis explained in the referenced post, in Lynch’s timeframe of 2017-2024 he had the ninth best draft all together.

Seattle Seahawks

Here is a list of the Seahawks players that had an AV of 8 or better in the previous five seasons.

2024 Derick Hall Devon Witherspoon Jaxon Smith Njigba Leonard Williams Sam Darnold
2023 DeMarcus Lawrence Kenneth Walker III Rashid Shaheed
2022 Abraham Lucas Charles Cross Cooper Kupp DeMarcus Lawrence Kenneth Walker III Quandre Diggs Riq Woolen Uchenna Nwosu
2021 Cooper Kupp Josh Jones Leonard Williams Quandre Diggs
2020 Leonard Williams Quandre Diggs

From this data and other sources I arrived at a core team for 2026 based on the current roster of players that are good to elite.

Position Offense Defense Position
RT Abraham Lucas Derick Hall ED
LT Charles Cross Devon Witherspoon CB
WR Jaxon Smith Njigba DeMarcus Lawrence ED
RB Kenneth Walker III Leonard Williams DL
QB Sam Darnold Julian Love S
TE AJ Barner Byron Murphy II DL

I added second year DT Byron Murphy due to a strong second season after a rookie year that was hampered by a hamstring injury and low playing time. He has seven sacks so far this season. Also added Julian Love who had a 7 AV last season and made the Pro Bowl the season before which was his first on the Seahawks. Lastly added tight end AJ Barner. Barner is another second year player that has really stepped up him game this year and has seven touchdowns so far. That is tied for fourth most among tight ends this season.

Based on the roster size of 2024 the Seahawks would need 15 players in the good to elite category to be Super Bowl contenders. Based on this analysis they would need three more players.

Sam Darnold – photo by Tennessee Titans, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

In the first post of this series, Beyond the Ring: Quarterbacks on the NFL Dynasty Path (Part 1) Sam Darnold made the list of dynasty path favorites. In looking at number of games with an ANY/A and NY/A of both 7+ since 2024 (Darnold’s resurgence), Darnold comes in second among 37 active quarterbacks with more than ten starts in percent of games with 61%.  His career TD% of 6.0 is well above the league average of 4.6. In fact it is tied for fourth for that timeframe. His passing success rate of 48.8% is fifteenth among 72 active quarterbacks. His QBR for both seasons of 57.3 and 58.4 is above average.

Mike Macdonald is the head coach and has been since 2024. His record is 23-10 or 0.697. Both have been winning seasons. In looking at close losses for that timeframe he comes in at a three way tie for second for the least amount with only 5. He comes in with a seven way tie for second in least amount of blowout losses with only two. He is fourth in the most blowout wins with eight.

John Schneider is the General Manager and has been since 2010. I had done an analysis on draft value picks based on draft position linked in earlier paragraphs. Based on that analysis that goes back to the 2012 draft the Seahawks would come in with a four way tie for third in best total drafts from 2012 – 2024. They are tie with Dallas, Kansas and the Patriots. Not bad company. In this analysis his best rated draft was as recent as 2023 when he drafted Devon Witherspoon, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Derick Hall and Zach Charbonnet. Of the thirteen drafts from 2012-2024 he has nine ranked in the top third, two in the middle third and two in the bottom third.

Conclusion

A quick high level summary table of the NFC West is as follows. The use of the word Dynasty signifies that the pieces are in place but it would still need to come together.

QB Team Head Coach GM re draft
Cardinals Above Average 5 players short Hot Seat Poor
Rams Dynasty Dynasty Dynasty Top Ten
49ers Dynasty 3 players needed Good Top Ten
Seahawks Very Good 3 players needed Dynasty Top Five

Feature image: BrokenSphere, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons


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