According to the odds there is a 99% probability that Fernando Mendoza, quarterback from Indiana, will be the number one pick in the 2026 NFL draft by the Raiders. Among 21 top quarterback prospects in the 2026 draft, Mendoza ranks first in an averaged 2025 net yards per attempt (NY/A) and adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). His 41% first downs to pass attempts ranked second. In comparison of Mendoza’s combination of NY/A, ANY/A and 1st downs/A to eight of the top qaurterbacks chosen in the last five years for their last college year, Mendoza comes in fourth out a a total of nine. Only Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stround and Bo Nix had better last years in this combined analysis. Mendoza ranked better than Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Drake Maye, Jordan Love and Jaxson Dart.
But what of the the projected non-first round quarterbacks in 2026? To look at these I used the NY/A and ANY/A statistics. To acheive a season of 7+ in both of these is a strong indicator of quarterback talent and projected future success. It is even stronger if the level of competition in which that was achieved was high. For that I picked a quarterback from each of the Power-4 conferences that achieved the 7+ in NY/A and ANY/A in a season. These are metrics that bode well at both a player and team level for success.
Sawyer Robertson, Baylor, Big 12
Sawyer has a powerful arm. Over the last two seasons he has ranked 15th in each season in passing plays of 20 plus yards. In 2025 Sawyer ranked fifth in passing touchdowns. This was a jump up from his impressive 14th ranking in 2024. In 2025 Sawyer is tie for the most 300+ yard passing games and has the most among NFL draft prospects with seven. He has the third most passing yards and the top amongst draft prospects. In the 2025 preseason Phil Steele ranked the Baylor wide receiving unit as 21st in the nation. Athlon Sports had them ranked as 23rd. The offensive line was ranked 17th following the 2025 season by profootballnetwork. Athlon Sports did give their running back backfield a preseason rank of 9th. But in general Baylor tops the passing yards in 2025 without a top ranked supporting class.
Sawyer has a strong list of intangibles that make him an enticing pick. His Baylor head coach, Dave Aranda, has compared him to Joe Burrow in his competitiveness, preparation and leadership. Aranda had coached on Burrow’s LSU team alongside Burrow for two seasons. “…In terms of competitor, in terms of being up here all the time, watching tape and putting time in, and in terms of having weapons and being able to get the ball to them and use them the right way, I think those things are right on.” said Aranda. Like Burrow at LSU, Robertson has developed a reputation for obsessive preparation and command.
From this ESPN article The curious case of Sawyer Robertson …
“ROBERTSON HELPED START a voluntary team Bible study at Baylor that grew from four to nearly 40 players. Ten Bears players were baptized this fall. It’s one of the things Robertson is most proud of. His style is not to proselytize. But you get a sense that he is so interested in you that you might want to see what he’s all about too…”
Sawyer was selected to serve as a counselor at the prestigious Manning Passing Academy in June 2025. The exclusive camp, run by football legends Archie, Peyton and Eli Manning, invites a select group of the nation’s top college quarterbacks to mentor the next generation of gridiron stars.
Robertson had a better 2024 than 2025. In 2024 he earned a 7.72 ny/a and a 8.54 any/a. That averaged together would have been fifth among the 22 quarterbacks for 2025. His 39.4% first downs to pass attempts would have been third. He is not a “mobile” quarterback but he can use his legs as he did in 2024 when he played behind a poor offensive line. Sawyer is known to stand in the pocket and take a hit to get a play off. He has played through injuries and has a reputation as a tough quarterback. In September 2025 he led Baylor to a shocking comeback road win over No. 17 SMU where Baylor overcame a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win 48-45 in overtime.
Haynes King, Georgia Tech, ACC
Haynes has got an elite athletic profile for a quarterback. At the combine he scored in the 98 percentile for his 4.46 forty yard dash. Here is a chart of his combine profile.
Haynes shows his athleticism in scrambles and designed run packages. He is one of only three quarterbacks that since 2023 has three seasons of making the top 100 list for number of rushing plays of 10+ yards among all players.
Haynes is one of only six college players since 1995 that have had two seasons of 2500 Passing Yds and 700 Rushing Yds with 4.5 Yds/Rushing Att, ten Rushing touchdowns, 55% Completion Percentage, 11 Yds/Pass Cmp and 7.2 Adj Yds/Pass Att. The full list of these players are J.T. Barrett, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Haynes King and Jordan Lynch. That list of six contains three current NFL stars (bolded), one 2026 draft prospect (Haynes) and two players that were unsuccessful in the NFL. The two unsuccessful players had tell-tale signs from their college careers that are not attributed to Haynes. They both were primary runners in spread-option offenses. Though Haynes does play in a spread-option offense it is a more a pro-style hybrid that utilizes Haynes’ athleticism and strong arm. Both Barrett and Lynch were critiqued as not having strong arms. To the contrary Haynes has made the top 100 list of most 20+ passing yards in 2025 (29th) , 2024 (96th) and 2023 (47th). His deep ball production decreased in 2024 due to a significant torn labrum in his throwing shoulder that made it painful to throw. However it rebouded in 2025 to his best. In the 2024 season the change in offensive strategy due to his injury resulted in setting a accuracy record for King. From 1995 to 2025, King was the only player that had 2 or less passes intercepted, passed for 2000+ yards and had a Pass Completion 70% or better. Yet his yards/attempt of 7.9 was good for 33rd out of 92 quarterbacks that passed for 2000 yards that year.
Sports24/7 ranked Haynes King as the 8th best Power Four quarterback in 2024 for deep ball throwers returning for 2025 based on PFF data. Haynes was one of just four Power Four quarterbacks to toss at least 25 passes of 20+ yards and not throw an interception. His NFL quarterback rating of 133.8 on deep balls tied for first in the Power Four among players with at least 25 attempts
NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah observed of Haynes who he maintained “might be, pound for pound, the toughest dude in this draft.” He is so athletic and tough that Jermiah said that he might be covering some kicks at the next level. That 2024 season with the injured shoulder, King played thru the pain to put on a great showing in a 44-42 eight-overtime loss to Georgia. In that game he threw 36 times for 303 yards and a pair of touchdowns, adding another 110 yards and three scores on the ground. In another game against undefeated Miami King played in significant pain to help defeat Maimi 28-23. There he threw for six laterals and rushed for 93 yards and a score. The guy is a tough, athletic, team-oriented playmaker.
Reports are that Haynes possesses good qualities and values friendships, his teammates, helping others, building relationships, humility and toughness.
Haynes had over 7+ in NY/A and ANY/A for his each of his last two seasons. Haynes King is 9th among FBS acive career leaders in completion precentage with 65.6%.He is fourth in rushing touchdowns with 37.
Joey Aguilar, Tennessee, SEC
Joey has consistently shown the ability to throw the deep pass over the last three years. in his two years at Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference he made the top 100 in FBS long passing plays ranking in 2023 as high as fourth in 10+ yards, 11th in 20+, 18th in 50+ and 16th in 60+. He repeats his success in 2024 with a 23rd in 10+, 19th in 30+, 12th in 40+ and with one play for 80+ yards. His transfer to the Power 4 into the SEC at Tennessee did not hamper this ability. In 2025 starting at 10+ yards and progressing by 10 he was 7th, 43rd, 23rd, 11th, 4th, 21st, and 11th in 70+ yards.
His entry to the SEC was highlighted by his 90.6 PFF passing grade which ranked fourth at the position behind only Julian Sayin, Diego Pavia and Fernando Mendoza. Aguilar’s turnover-worthy play rate ranked eighth-lowest in the country (1.9%). Aguilar ranked eighth in completion percentage and fifth in passer rating for under pressure dropbacks. In passes of 20+ yards downfield Joey ranked fourth in completion percentage and 12th in passer rating. Joey Aguilar and Carson Beck led the nation with 13 deep touchdowns.
Aguilar has leaned on his strong faith and shown toughness and a great work ethic in his long journey to an NFL draft prospect. He started by enrolling at City College of San Francisco, but didn’t see the field. There he rode a 90 minute train ride each way for his commute. His 2020 season was cancelled due to the pandemic. Joey nearly quit football to become a firefighter. He then enrolled at Diablo Valley College for two years, playing well enough to draw the attention of Appalachian State. At Appalachian State his first year he passed for over 3700 yards, 33 touchdowns and had first down conversion numbers of 38% of attempts and 59% of completions. After two years he transferred into the Power 4 in the SEC at Tennessee. The SEC was not too big for him as he passed for over 3500 yards, 24 touchdowns and continued a first down conversion rate of 39% of attempts and 57% of completions. In each of his last three seasons he has had a touchdown pass of 73 yards or more.
Joey showed his tremendous work ethic in learning the Tennessee system after transferring following the spring practice and becoming the starter that fall. Aguilar was adapting to his fourth offensive system in 28 months. He spent hours watching film and reviewing practice sheets. Aguilar successfully led Tennessee to a 45-26 victory over Syracuse in his debut, passing for 247 yards and three touchdowns.
Aguilar has shown poise and calm multiple times when he overcame bad plays to lead his team on successful scoring drives. In his first Tennessee road game against Mississippi State he overcame a pair of interceptions. Later facing a 34-27 deficit in the fourth quarter, Aguilar led Tennessee on a 13-play, 75-yard drive in the fourth quarter that he finished himself with a 6-yard touchdown run with 1:55 remaining. During a game against Kentucky, he displayed high poise by leading a 75-yard touchdown drive in just 92 seconds right before halftime, following an earlier pick-six and safety.
Aguilar shows his toughness in playing the year with a benign tumor in his throwing shoulder, taking tough hits and still coming back and standing in the pocket under pressure to complete throws, and a physical running style of lowering his shoulder to initiate contact.
Joey has a strong faith in Jesus and has spoken how he believes that God’s plan is for him to play football and thru that platform give glory and praise to God and express his joy. Joey emphasizes that he plays to please God rather than meet the high expectations or criticisms of fans.
Aguilar achieved two individual seasons of having both ANY/A and NY/A above 7.0. His FBS average was above 7 for both. Joey Aguilar is the FBS active career leader in passing yards per game with 271.7 yards. He is third in touchdown passes with 80. He is fourth in passing yards per attempt with 8.23. Phil Simms has picked Joey Aguilar as his third best quarterback in the draft. His son, Chris Simms, has Joey as QB4.
Athan Kaliakmanis, Rutgers, Big 10
Going full circle from Mendoza back to the Big Ten we pick Athan Kaliakmanis of Rutgers. Athan has developed from a game manager quarterback to a record-breaking one. He has shown a consistent improvement year over year. Since his 2022 season in Minnesota to his 2025 one at Rutgers he has had a 200% increase in passing yards, 100% increase in TD%, a 50% decrease in Int%, a 16% increase in passer rating, a 15% increase in completion percent and a 10% increase in first downs to pass attempts.
In 2025 he helped the offense average 407.1 yards of total offense overall and 389.1 in Big Ten play, the team’s best marks in a season since joining the league. As for being available, in 2024 he was the only Big Ten player to attempt all its team’s passes. The 2024 unit converted on third down at a clip of 44 percent, the team’s best mark in the Big Ten era.
In 2025 Athan was the PFF Big 10 team of the week quarterback for weeks 1, 9, 11 and 14. In week 11 he was also named Manning Award “Star of the Week” for a four touchdown performance against Maryland. Through the first four weeks of 2025 Athan led all quarterbacks in PFF passing grade with a 92.8.
Athan made the top 100 list of 2025 long passing for 10+ yards up to 70+ yards. He was 13th at 30+ yards and 16th at 40+ yards. In 2024 he made the list for 10+ up to 60+ yards. Athan had two seasons of both a 7+ ANY/A and NY/A.
Athan has been recognized for his work ethic, leadership, adaptability and poise. He transitioned to Rutgers and led the team to set records. This is what his Rutgers coach had to say about Athan: “Athan has a lot of traits (that) I think that NFL teams will like, he has physical traits that are certainly really appealing,” Schiano said. “He’s got great arm strength. He has great anticipation, very good football IQ. But again, like so many of these guys, I’m going to say it: The greatest thing is the human being, he is. He’s a tremendous human being, a tremendous young man, and I fully expect him to have a career in the National Football.”
Athan is team oriented. When it comes to improving he does so not for his own benefit but rather for the team. “I want to be the best for my teammates, and I think about my teammates when I think about getting better, I think about my coaches when I think about getting better -because it’s really a family.” When asked how he improved both his accuracy and yards/attempt in 2025 he replied: “I threw the football more than I thought I could possibly throw it. I threw the ball every single day during game week. I threw the ball every single day until the season was over. Every single day. I never skipped a day. If I didn’t throw the ball, I wouldn’t have felt like I did everything I possibly could to be ready for that game. Even on Thursdays, our walkthrough day before a Saturday game, I found a way to throw the ball.”
In 2025 in a loss to Penn State Athan passed for 16-of-22 for 338 yards. He had three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown as Rutgers nearly beat Penn State for the first time since joining the Big Ten in 2014. A fourth quarter fumble marred a great performance from Kaliakmanis in his final game at Rutgers.”I love him. He’s done incredible things here. Incredible. Think about a couple years, our passing game, think about what he’s been able to accomplish, he’s a 3,000-yard passer,” Schiano said. “And more importantly, just to watch him grow as a leader and grow, it’s hard. It’s really hard. Because he’s the ultimate competitor, and he feels like he let people down. But I told him (that) ‘You didn’t let anybody down. You’re the reason we’re in the game at the fourth quarter’.”
Conclusion
There are four players with the production, arm strength, statistics and intangibles to warrant a day three selection. Since 2016 there have been over 1500 players drafted in rounds 4 to 7. Of these 86 have made a Pro Bowl. Given the value of the quarterback position it would seem advantageous to use what is essentially a gamble pick on a player that could bring the best payback. Even if they advance no more than to a backup quarterback that is still very valuable in the NFL today. Over the last 5 seasons, since the NFL went to 17 games, only a third of team quarterbacks have started all 17 games. If perchance the quarterback picked turns out to be a good one the benefit is immense. Even if you have a star quarterback you could pick up a great trade value for other players or future picks. Since the draft went to 7 rounds in 1994 there have been 13 quarterbacks drafted on day three that have made the Pro Bowl. Excluding the rookie Shedeur Sanders, they have started 45 to 333 games. The draft is about two weeks away. It will be interesting to see where these four quarterbacks end up.
Feature Image: Jar-Lar, Brock Purdy CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons